Statistics Matter October 26, 2023
Confirmation Bias- examples
DEFINITION
Confirmation bias is the tendency to interpret or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing beliefs or desires. (self-fulfilling prophecy)
EXAMPLES:
ARGUMENT - the toilet seat
Wife & husband are arguing—(W) “You always leave the seat up.”
(H) “Are you kidding! I never leave the seat up!”
Both are absolutely convinced their opinion is correct because they remember (and con-firm their position) only when it is in their favor.
SPORTS- the cold streak or the hot hand
A basketball player has missed 3 times in a row. He is “cold”. You are yelling at the TV for him to pass and quit shooting. If he shoots and misses, you yell “Why are you shooting?” If he shoots and makes it, you say “Well he was due one.” Either way you have confirmed what should happen. In reality, they have studied the phenomenon of “being in a zone” or “being in a slump” and these are clusters of random events, and non-predictive.
TAROT CARD/MIND READERS
Studies show these people are good at throwing out a lot of vague clues (“I feel like the number 3 is an important number in your life…” “Hey, I was born in March!”) Clients will simply confirm the parts that apply to them and ignore the pieces that don’t fit.
POLITICS
A candidate makes a statement. Those on the opposing side are incredulous at how tacky, wrong, and just stupid it is. Those on the candidates side are congratulatory on the bold-ness and braveness to speak the truth. We literally see and hear what we already believe.
SCIENCE
We search blogs, articles, publications and come to the conclusions that fit with our presup-positions. If we believe in IVtPA for stroke, “all the data is clear that it is beneficial”. If we disbelieve in IVtPA, “none of the data proves its benefit outweighs its harms”.
ED MEETINGS
When we want to prove a point, we provide an anecdote “I saw a guy the other day that….” This is likely a random association and we don’t remember the “other guy” (or hundreds of “other guys”) just like him in whom the event did not occur. But our anecdote serves as our data. We think we are logical, but we make a lot of our decisions emotionally. We confirm what we already believe. We “cherry-pick” the data.
EDITORIAL
So how do we combat “confirmation bias”? We start with looking at data. And we honestly try to gather good data. The best mental attitude is simply to be unattached to the outcome but intensely curious about what it is. If one is already too emotionally invested in your out-come, one can begin your data search by reading studies, even editorials about the study, that argue for the “opposite” side.
The next step after an honest attempt at data, is a humble recognition. If the data is weak or inconclusive, this should be acknowledged. If the type of study can’t really draw causation (eg. observational trials), this should be acknowledged. If you are already emotionally in-vested in the conclusion; in humility, admit that your view is a personal perspective, not an objective view of truth… e.g. “ I am sure there are times I have not put the seat down, but I cannot remember a time in the last month that I haven’t made a conscious effort to put it down before leaving the bathroom.” or “I am sure there are many times the nurses get me the urine quickly, but after my last shift I became so frustrated after two of my patients waiting over an hour to get urine in septic patients. I don’t know really how common this is, but it seems to me to be getting much worse.”